At the time of writing this column, we are still a long way off the final results. Yet, without the actual results, there are already many clear trends.

1.     Voters are fed-up:

As predicted, this election saw the lowest turnout since the dawn of democracy. The IEC announced that just over 12 million people cast their votes. This amounts to a 46,1% turnout. This is significantly lower than the 58% of the 2016 elections and represents a dangerous trend. We know that this election saw the lowest number ever of registrations of eligible voters (only about 67%). Thirteen million eligible voters did not register. So, if you combine those who did not register with those who did register but did not turn up to vote, it amounts to 27 million people (more than double the number of people that had voted).  This means that the actual turnout (of the total population) was closer to 30%. 

Voters are clearly tired of politics, and of the corruption and lies of politicians. All the parties are to be blamed for this, but the governing party, in particular, carries a huge responsibility.

The fact that the turnout was particularly low in the townships and less so in the suburban areas clearly shows the effect that the last decade under Zuma has had on the electorate. This general disillusionment is a very dangerous trend, since people may be increasingly inclined to vent their frustrations in other ways such as violent protests.

2.     The IEC struggled more than usual:

The Deputy Chairperson of the IEC, Janet Love, rightly pointed out that with every election, political parties criticize the IEC and accuse them of incompetency. She is right. There are always a number of late ballot station openings and some ballot paper shortages which political parties shout loudly about. However, there is little doubt that the new Voter Management System (VMS) caused major problems resulting in long queues and some voters’ names not appearing on the voters’ roll.

The IEC was, of course, hoping for an election date in the new year, but the Constitutional Court ruled otherwise. This resulted in the challenges with the VMS system, which had not been tested sufficiently.  Having said that, unless there is clear evidence of large-scale fraud or significant numbers of people prevented from voting, we should not pay much attention to all the noise around the IEC. Political parties (especially those who do badly) will always complain and point the finger elsewhere in the hope of distracting the media and voters from their own incompetency.

3.     The big-4 dominates:

Despite all the fuss about smaller parties, the big 4 (ANC, DA, EFF and FF+) still dominate the South African political landscape. It is true that some smaller parties can and will be the kingmakers, but ultimately the big-4 will take between 80 % and 90% of the vote.

4.     The DA and ANC were klapped:

Although the DA continued to do well amongst white voters (especially in the Western Cape), it is clear that Black and Coloured voters have punished the DA.  With all their leadership problems, that came as no surprise. Herman Mashaba especially and to a lesser extent, Patricia de Lille, added to their woes. The FF+ also continued their growth amongst Afrikaans voters in the inland provinces and even grabbed some votes from the DA in the Western Cape.

Voters also made their voices heard with the majority party. They are no longer willing to accept the corruption and lack of service delivery from the ANC and they have shown it with their vote.

5.     Cape Town will not become a homeland after all:

It seems Cape Town will, after all , have to stay part of the rest of South Africa. Despite all the noise they tried to make, the Capexit crowd (even with the FF+ jumping on the oxwagen) barely made a blip.  Thankfully sanity prevailed amongst the Western Cape voters.

6.     The EFF is growing… but not that much:

Despite Juju’s great predictions of winning a majority of councils in the country, their growth remains slow. Yes, they are growing but not that much and they are still very far (to put it mildly) from a majority of councils.

7.     Coalitions everywhere:

There are many more hung councils than ever before which will require coalitions. Although this is generally good for democracy, it does require a certain level of maturity from the political role players. Experience has taught us that this is often lacking and results in very unstable local authorities.

Over the next few days, we will get the final results. Then, the inevitable navel-gazing and blame games by the parties will begin. The weather, the IEC, misinformation by other parties, and the date of the elections will all be blamed, and when it comes to the parties’ performances, there will be major spinning.

Already on Tuesday, John Steenhuizen responded angrily to reporters when questioned about the DA’s performance and how that might impact on his future leadership of the party. He suggested that the DA’s performance should be measured against the last national election (when they got just over 20% of the vote) and not the previous local government elections (when they got almost 27%). He said that he would be happy with any growth above 20% since they had to deal with Mmusi Maimane “walking away from the party after the previous election”, something apparently few parties survive.

Sigh!

Ultimately, the politicians have just themselves to blame. They should not celebrate any victories but reflect on the fact that the citizens of this country – those who voted and those who did not - sent a clear message.

You must do better!