At the rate that tea is consumed in Nkandla these days, one should consider buying shares in Rooibos tea. However, I seriously doubt that it has anything to do with the quality of tea or cake on offer.

To quote Pravin Gordhan: “It is time to connect the dots”.

Of course, it all started with Julius Malema, who claimed he was going to convince former President Zuma to go to the Zondo Commission. Ja, right! As if Zuma was ever going listen to his advice after the years of humiliation in Parliament during the pay-back-the-money saga. Of course, Malema would have known that.

So why go? 

Shortly after his visit, Duduzane Zuma released a video on social media in which he promised to “reset, redistribute and rebuild over the next two to three years so by the time 2024 comes we will be fully in control.” I’m wondering if Malema’s visit had more to do with Zuma junior than senior?

Dot Dot Dot.

Shortly after Malema’s visit, the MKVA guys donned their American-bought camouflage and decamped to Nkandla to “protect” former President Zuma from arrest. Of course, their spokesperson is Carl Niehaus, who is also Ace Magashule’s right-hand man and author of the recently released RET document. He has also not been shy to make his anti-Ramaphosa views known.

Dot Dot Dot.

The Women’s League then decided to pay Nkandla a visit. Their leader, Bathabile Dlamini is of course well known for her support for the former President. Remember how furious she was the night of the Kwezi protest at the IEC center? She lashed out at the women claiming that they were “reactionaries supported by clandestine forces… who pay them to embarrass the ruling party”, and that the women were used to “advance and fight the battles of patriarchy.”… All because they dared to embarrass then-president Zuma.

She faces a number of financial problems linked to court cases she lost, aggravated by the fact that her pension is being held back reportedly because of illegal security upgrades to her house during her time as minister.

Dot Dot Dot.

Then last week Ace Magashule (with Carl Niehaus by his side) addressed the students who marched to Luthuli House with demands for free education and the writing off of historical debt. The student’s demands might be legitimate, but what was insightful was how glibly Magashule tried to separate the ANC from the government. “The ANC directed Government to find money and resources to meet your [the students] demands”, he said before encouraging the students to continue with their demands. “A Luta Continua!” he shouted, before leading the students in a march against the ANC-controlled (!) government to the Constitutional Court.  

Dot Dot Dot.

Zuma holds very little real power in the ANC today. So, I doubt that the tea drinking has anything to do with his approach to the Zondo Commission. Instead, it seems to have everything to do with the future plans of the faction in the ANC which Zuma controlled for a long time – many of whom are on thin ice with the law.   

Of course, they are acutely aware that the ANC will not come to their rescue once the ice breaks. For this reason, they hate Ramaphosa and in particular his anti-corruption agenda. Thus, their aim (as Duduzane revealed) is to get back into power. Gaining control of the ANC and the country in order to secure their personal stay-out-of-jail cards and financial gain under the guise of a RET agenda.

What we are seeing here is the beginning of the campaign leading up to the ANC’s next elective conference at the end of 2022.

Of course, both the ANC and EFF know that the youth vote will increasingly become a factor in the future party and general elections.

Those born after 1994 (and thus more radicalized) will only really come into “play” at the next election. Thus, Duduzane’s appeal to the youth, Ace ingratiating himself with the students, the launch of the RET manifesto by Carl Niehaus, and possibly the EFF trying to get into the good books of the Zuma family (in particular Duduzane).

It is important to note that this does not pose a threat to Ramaphosa in the immediate future. It would be almost impossible for this faction to succeed in either a vote of non-confidence in parliament or to convince the NEC to dispose of Ramaphosa. Not least of all because the NEC knows that the ANC can’t win the local government election without the current president.

However, the battle for 2022 is on and there can be no doubt that this will be as – if not more – divisive for the ANC and destructive to the country as the 2017 Nasrec Conference. So, hold onto your seats folks – it is going to get ugly.