Over the last few weeks, speculation has been rife about a cabinet shuffle.

Unlike President Zuma who shuffled his cabinet a whopping 11 times in 9  years, President Ramaphosa has only made changes once in August 2021, almost 18 months ago.

A lot has changed since then.

Ramaphosa has been elected for a second term as ANC President and with significantly more support than in 2017. He also now has a far more supportive NEC.  In the meantime, a number of cabinet ministers such as Lindiwe Sisulu and Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma have shown a clear lack of support for the President, which makes their positions untenable.

Most importantly the country is facing unprecedented challenges. Lack of service delivery, the ongoing Eskom crisis, unemployment and lack of trust in the political elite – to mention but a few.

So a shuffle is necessary and should be imminent.

One would think that the only motivation in appointing cabinet ministers would be skill and integrity. Without a doubt those should be the most important criteria. However, as is often the case in politics, it is never quite so simple.

Firstly, there are constitutional and legal constraints.

Many commentators have been speculating about possible changes including the need for Paul Mashatile to become Deputy President. There can be no doubt that Mashatile will be Deputy President at some stage, but he will first have to become a member of the National Assembly. 

Section 91(3) (a) of the Constitution states clearly that “The President must select the Deputy President from among members of the National Assembly.”

Having been full-time at Luthuli house, Paul Mashatile is currently not a member of the National Assembly. Given our electoral system, political parties can add people to their lists, but for Mashatile to become a member, someone would have to first vacate their position – either through resignation or death.  Of course, with Mbalula going to Luthuli House and the possibility of Deputy President David Mabuza resigning, that could be possible.

However, this equally applies to any other candidates, such as David Makhura and Sihle Zikalala, whose names have been mentioned in numerous press articles.

Ultimately the President remains restricted to choosing from members of the National Assembly and thus, it will take some clever footwork of the ANC to get the right people into the National Assembly should the President want people from outside.

There is one exception…

 Section 91 (3) (c) says that the President may appoint to the cabinet two people from outside of the National Assembly. (Note, however, that this does not apply to the position of Deputy President who the constitution explicitly states must be a member of the National Assembly).

However, currently one of the two positions is filled by Minister Ebrahim Patel who was too low on the list to make it into the National Assembly during the last national elections. The other position is filled by Minister Enoch Godongwana. So, unless the President drops one or both of them, this provision is not of much help to him.

Apart from the Constitutional restrictions, the President also needs to keep many constituencies happy. He still has to keep the tri-partite alliance in mind – so will likely either keep or appoint some members from Cosatu and the SACP to cabinet. He also remains under pressure to keep the gender balance right. Then there is also the demand for younger cabinet ministers.

Ultimately, he will also be conscious of the fact that a cabinet minister has to have some level of experience in order to serve successfully. It is for this reason that members of cabinet are usually appointed from amongst the deputy ministers or chairs of committees.

Luckily for the President there are many deputy ministers – 32 in total - to choose from. However, whether they will bring the necessary new energy and perspective desperately required is another question.

Then there is of course his own political party...

Some media commentators have suggested that cabinet ministers will be fired because they failed to win election to the ANC NEC. However, this is not correct. Although it is practice to have cabinet members on the NEC, it has often not been the case. In any case, the ANC has in the past co-opted cabinet members who were not elected at the elective conference. The ANC secretary general, Fikile Mbalula, has already indicated that they will do so again. So the President is free to appoint or retain people irrespective of whether they are on the ANC NEC.

However, despite the increase in support for Ramaphosa in the ANC, he will be aware that he can’t alienate too many close and powerful allies – such as Gwede Mantashe. Given that the NEC can at any stage recall Ramaphosa, he will have to continue to walk the tightrope of what is best for the country, whilst not endangering his own position.

Appointing a cabinet is a complicated business, but then no one ever said being President should be easy! What can’t be denied is that a shake-up is urgently needed, for the country’s sake, but also, if the ANC wants to stand any chance of retaining power during the next election.

We will be waiting with bated breath….