Eish! What is Ace up to?

Grab your popcorn and get ready for the Magashule show- it’s going to be a interesting few weeks.

Sometimes you just can’t make the stuff of politicians up – even if you try. So, there I was last Wednesday evening at 10 o’ clock ready to fall asleep with my favourite book. (Ok, it was some nonsense series on Netflix, but either way I was ready to fall asleep).

Suddenly my phoned pinged.

“Is this real?” a friend of mine asked, referring to an attachment.

Cursing myself for not putting my phone on silent, I opened the attachment. It was a press statement from Ace Magashule, saying that he was not accepting and thus appealing his temporary suspension of earlier that day, and that he was still the Secretary General of the ANC.

“Ooooh, not a clever move,” I mumbled to myself before texting a senior ANC member to check the veracity of it. “Not sure,” the answer came back. “Doubt it – would be a very stupid thing to do.” 

Before I could answer: “Well, that most probably means it is real”, my phone pinged again. Another attachment. This time the attachment revealed another letter from Magashule suspending Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC membership.  

I had a little giggle and sent another text to the ANC member. “Well, THAT can definitely NOT be real!” the message came back – with loads of laughing emojis. 

Except, it was…  

The suspended unsuspended himself and then suspended the suspender.

No wonder people are now suggesting that green, black and gold suspenders should be part of the official ANC uniform.  

As funny as it might be, this will go down in history as one of those momentous, yet most idiotic moves in politics anywhere. Imagine suspending the membership of the president of your party and the country – without any agreement of any structure or, for that matter, any grounds. The President has after all not been charged with any crime or corruption – something that seems to have slipped Magashule’s mind.

This would not go down well in any party, least of all the ANC. The ANC works like a big family. You can talk and criticise within the family as much as you want, but once the majority in the family has agreed on something – you fall in line. Above all, you don’t do anything outside that can embarrass the family. And boy, was Magashule’s “you-are-no-longer-an-ANC-member-stunt intended to embarrass the President and the party.

Having broken this almost sacrosanct rule of the ANC, even those in the NEC who might have still been sitting on the fence will now no longer support him. It will also not go down well with the majority of branches – as Qaanitah Hunter explained in her column yesterday.

So, what is Ace trying to do?

There is no doubt that he is trying to buy time.

In June 2005, Jacob Zuma stepped aside as Deputy President two weeks after he was implicated in the Shabir Shaik trial. (Thabo Mbeki insists that he didn’t fire him, but that he voluntarily stepped aside). A month later at the National General Council (NGC) of the ANC - after some intense political lobbying - the branches insisted that Zuma should return to his position. That spelled the beginning of the end of Mbeki’s reign.  

Undoubtedly Magashule is hoping to follow a similar strategy. The ANC’s next NGC (which was meant to take place mid-2020) is still planned for later this year. There is no date yet, but it is likely to be held in the next few months. If that fails Ace would hope for his re-instatement at the Elective Conference at the end of 2021.

To succeed, he needs the support of the majority of branches, which would be a tall order. Magashule doesn’t have nearly as much popularity as Zuma did mid-2015. President Ramaphosa is also far more popular than Mbeki was at the time. So, it would take a massive mobilization effort on his part.  The ANC NEC is well aware of this, which explains the “no mobilization of ANC structures allowed” in their suspension letter.

Thus, in order to retain some position of influence, it was inevitable that Magashule would appeal the matter first internally and - failing that - through the courts, whilst arguing that until the process is finished he should remain in his position.

This strategy might have had some (small) chance of success, if he had not decided to suspend the President’s membership. (I can’t even write this without laughing at the absurdity of it.)

Having over-played his hand, his back is now against the wall. The NEC is demanding an apology to the President, party and country. This would mean a major step down for Magashule, but he has no choice other than to cross his fingers behind his back and say sorry. If he doesn’t, he would almost certainly be expelled from the party.

So dear readers, take out the brandy and/or coke (of course without “ys”) and popcorn. It is going to be an interesting few weeks.