Is a second term on the cards for Cyril Ramaphosa?
Photo credit: Flickr/ GovernmentZA
“ For the sake of the country, let’s hope that sanity will prevail and [that Ramaphosa] will be victorious. ”
There is no question that Cyril Ramaphosa is the best person to lead South Africa at the moment and in the foreseeable future. Those who would like to dispute that, would be hard-pressed to come up with another person who has the gravitas, economic knowledge, commitment to social reconstruction and international standing of our current president.
So, if we want to see an upwards trajectory for our country, it would be important for Ramaphosa to serve another 5 years as President of the country. For that to happen he would of course have to retain his position as president of the ANC at the party’s next elective conference at the end of 2022.
Although the anti-Ramaphosa faction would like us to believe otherwise, Ramaphosa remains very popular amongst ANC rank and file. The question is whether that would be enough? There are clearly other factors that would play a role in whether Ramaphosa would re-elected.
1) Whether he is willing to stand again.
To be President is a tough job. The workload demands almost above human stamina and the daily criticism is grueling. President Ramaphosa certainly does not need to be president. As a businessman, he could easily make in a day what he earns in a month as president. So, he could “pull a Madiba on us” and decline a second term. However, that seems unlikely. Ramaphosa wants to finish what he started at Codesa in the early nineties and ensure that the country reaches its full potential and specifically the economic liberation of the majority of people.
That was never going to be possible in one term – even before COVID. In addition, it seems obvious that if his intention was just to do one term he would have been less cautious in terms of reforms and would have been far more bullish in his own party. Knowing, however, that he would need more than 5 years, he had to be careful and retain enough support to ensure a second term.
2) The composition of the ANC membership.
The position of president of the ANC is voted on by the branch delegates at the elective conference. However, provinces often have a pre-agreed position and ask branches to vote according to the provincial mandate. At the NASREC conference in 2017 there were clearly defined provincial support for either Ramaphosa or Dlamini-Zuma. The size of the membership numbers in each province therefore played a huge role in the final outcome.
Under Ace Magashule’s reign as secretary-general the ANC membership grew significantly. At the time of the NASREC conference, the membership was just under a million. In December 2020 it was reported that membership had grown to around 1.4 million. The question is now what role Magashule played in this and whether the additional 500 000 members would be supporters of him and the RET faction. The ANC has not clarified the individual provincial numbers, so it is hard to know. They have also embarked on an extensive membership audit, but audits are always limited in what they can achieve.
It is also true that membership numbers tend to grow significantly prior to the elective conference, so it would be crucial for Ramaphosa’s supporters to be active and visible in these membership drives.
3) Who else will stand.
Although the elective conference is still about 18 months away, some names consistently come up as possible challengers. At this stage, there is no clear front runner for the anti-Ramaphosa faction, but on the moderate (Ramaphosa) side, names such as Paul Mashatile, David Makhura and Zweli Mkhize are frequently mentioned. In order for Ramaphosa to win, it would be crucial to ensure that his support base is not split by these challengers and he would have to persuade them to step back before the actual vote.
4) How the legal challenges play out.
The anti-Ramaphosa faction led by Magashule is in full fight-back mode and has amongst others taken their fight to the courts. There are a number of court cases pending – one of the most important ones being Magashule vs. the ANC which is in court over the next few days. Although it would not be fatal for Ramaphosa if the courts rule that some procedural mistakes had been made, it would certainly be a major setback.
For Ramaphosa to sustain his support in the ANC for the next 18 months, it is important that the legal challenges against his anti-corruption measures in the ANC fail. If they don’t it would provide his opponents with significant ammunition in their war against him.
5) The COVID pandemic.
Hopefully, the COVID pandemic would be well under control by next year and would therefore not play a major role at the ANC elective conference. However, should some major crisis erupt before then, it could cause branches to lash out against Ramaphosa’s leadership. I believe that ANC members are fully aware that there will still be further waves of increased infections and deaths. Although frustrated, my sense is that they understand the global constraints on securing vaccines. So, unless there are some serious negative side effects of the vaccines – which is unlikely – this should not play too big a role in Ramaphosa’s bid for re-election.
In 18 months from now, the future of the country would again be in the hand of a few thousand ANC delegates. Some argue that Ramaphosa would stand unopposed. That seems highly unlikely. However, for the sake of the country, let’s hope that sanity will prevail and he will be victorious.