Magashule vs Ramaphosa: And the winner is...
Photos courtesy of Flickr/ Commons.wikimedia.org
Over the weekend, Cyril Ramaphosa again showed why he is president of this country.
There was, as always, much speculation prior to the meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee. The usual doomsayers were quick to suggest that this was (again) going to be the end of Ramaphosa’s reign as head of the ANC and the country.
This was very much in line with the “choir analysis” of many analysts, commentators, and journalists over the last year. Analysts like myself who suggested that Ramaphosa would not only survive any immediate threat but would be safe at least until the next National Elective Conference of the ANC were treated with skepticism and accused of being biased and uninformed.
Yet, again and again Ramaphosa proved what a master strategist he is.
Even a cursory read of the ANC’s statement following the NEC meeting proves that Ramaphosa and his supporters were the major winners this weekend.
It started with the explicit support for the Zondo Commission. No surprise here, but clearly a slap in the face for Zuma and his supporters.
Ramaphosa 1, Anti-CR faction 0
Then there was the issue of the Public Protector. It was agreed that the vote on the matter was in line with the rules adopted by parliament. Importantly they went on to confirm that the ANC Political Committee in Parliament has the responsibility and right to oversee matters before the ANC Caucus in Parliament and to consult with the ANC officials and Headquarters as and when required. This is directly aimed at those who criticized the chief whip Pemmy Majodina when she instructed ANC MPs to vote for the motion to refer the issue of Mkwebane to a parliamentary committee, as well as those (including Ace Magashule) who were against the vote.
Ramaphosa 2, Anti-CR faction 0
The best was yet to come. The statement slammed the existence of the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction. Rarely have I read a more scathing reaction and decisive decision by the NEC. “The ANC…will not tolerate meddling in the internal affairs of the ANC or use of ANC resources to undertake counter-revolutionary activities from within its structures and facilities” the statement read. It went further: “The NEC agreed that no ANC members should associate themselves with or be involved in the so-called RET Forces.” It went on to also forbid any staff member [read Carl Niehaus] to be involved or use ANC facilities to promote this.
This is a devastating blow for the anti-Ramaphosa forces who have used the guise of RET to mobilize against him through the punting of the fictitious (yet dangerous) narrative that Ramaphosa and his supporters are selling out the real ANC ideology.
Ramaphosa 3, Anti-CR faction 0
For good measure, the statement then criticises a renewed onslaught of fake media against the President and other ANC leaders. From the phrasing and positioning in the statement, there is clearly no doubt amongst the majority of NEC members as to where these stories originated from. The story published by Iqbal Surve’s African News Agency (ANA) was clearly the final straw. The blatantly false story suggested that Johan Rupert had summoned Ramaphosa to a meeting and insisted that he suspend Ace.
It is of course totally absurd to even consider that Ramaphosa would allow himself to be summoned or take instructions by anyone. However, it is an all too obvious attempt by his opponents to delegitimise any decision taken by the NEC around Magashule by suggesting that it was on the instruction of some white billionaire. Honestly, have we not moved past the Gupta/Bell Pottinger white monopoly capital spin?
Ramaphosa 4, Anti CR-faction 0
The NEC was far from done yet. In a clear reference to Carl Niehaus (the author of the RET document and advisor to Magashule), they suggest that disciplinary procedures should be considered.
Let’s be clear: despite Malema’s hilarious analysis of Carl Niehaus (“How can you run a revolution with someone who has buried his mother five times?”) getting rid of Niehaus would be a long-overdue, but a serious blow to the anti-Ramaphosa forces.
Ramaphosa 5, Anti CR-faction 0
Next, they raised their concern about the MKVA situation, in which Carl Niehaus of course also plays a key role. The NEC warned against utterances or actions that bring the noble legacy in disrepute.
Ramaphosa 6, Anti CR-faction 0
It is only at the end of the five-page statement that we get some insight into the stepping aside issue. The ANC loves keeping people in suspense, but it was worth the wait. It states categorically that those who have been charged with corruption or serious crimes must step aside within 30 days or be suspended. Diplomatically it doesn’t address Magashule directly, except to welcome the decision by Magashule to “use this time to seek the counsel of past leaders of the movement”.
Ramaphosa 7, Anti-CR faction 0
There should be no doubt that this NEC was an epic victory for Ramaphosa. Of course, we have no idea how Magashule and his supporters are going to respond. On Wednesday he was planting trees. On WhatsApp, an ANC person asked: “Should the comrade not be clearing his office?”, to which the response was: “Perhaps the elders told him to plant trees!”
Jokes aside, this NEC meeting yet again confirmed that Ramaphosa’s patience and inclusive leadership style bears fruit. He rarely takes on battles that he can’t win. When he does pick up the political sword he ensures victory through carefully and creatively crafted maneuvers.
This is why he has survived in politics so long and why those who underestimate him do so at their peril.