Eye on 2024: What the ANC and DA need to worry about
South African youths registering to vote, St Johns Anglican Church, Kayamandi, Western Cape.
Photo credit: HelenOnline via Wikimedia Commons
So, we survived our twelfth elections! We should really pat ourselves on the back. Not many countries that go through the type of transition we had in 1994, navigate so many cycles of elections (relatively) peacefully.
With the final results now out, the ANC remains the biggest party, the DA second, the EFF the third and FF + fourth. So not much has changed in terms of the macro picture.
Yet, both the ANC and DA lost a huge number of votes – thus the dramatic increase in the number of hung councils.
There is no doubt that the results will raise serious concerns with these two parties in anticipation of the next national election due to take place in 2024.
So, I played around with a few scenarios and it is clear that, depending on turnout, they have reason to be worried.
Here is why:
An interesting fact is that the actual number of voters on the voters’ roll has stayed roughly the same for the last three elections (i.e. the 2016 and 2021 local government elections, as well as the 2019 national election). Despite the growth in our population, the number has been consistent around the 26 million mark (give or take a few hundred thousand).
However, there was a vast difference in turn-out. The 2016 local government election had a 58% turnout, the 2019 national election 66%, and the recent election 46%.
During the recent election, the ANC lost 2.6 million (33%) of its voters compared to the previous local government elections in 2016. The DA lost just under 1.5 million or (36%) of its voters during the same period.
So, if this trend continues, what might happen at the national election in 2024?
Depending on the turnout, it could spell trouble for the ANC and DA.
In the 2019 national election, the ANC got just over 10 million votes (62%) and the DA just over 3.6 million (20.77%).
Let’s assume that the voters’ roll continues to be around 26 million.
If both parties lose 33% of the number of votes from the previous national elections, this means the ANC would get 6.7 million votes and the DA would get 2.3 million votes nationally.
If the turnout is the same as with the recent elections (i.e. 46%), the ANC will get 55,8% of the vote and the DA, 19%. This would mean only a slight decrease from the current situation at a national level for both parties.
However, if the turnout drops by 12% (as it did between the two local government elections) to 54%, the ANC would - for the first time - fall below 50% on a national level with only 47% of the vote. The DA would get 16% - so 4% less than currently.
In terms of real numbers, the EFF has stayed stable between the 2016 and 2021 local government elections with 1.2 million votes. So, if the EFF also remains stable at a national level, that would mean that they would get 15% with a 46% turnout and 12.8% with a 54% turnout.
What does this all mean?
If the ANC wants to stay above 50% in 2024 they will have to get their voters re-energized and back to the polling stations. It is true that some ANC voters voted for other parties, but the numbers clearly indicate that most of the 2.6 million votes that they lost were due to voter apathy. In other words, ANC voters didn’t want to vote for other parties but also did not want to vote for the ANC. So, they just didn’t vote. The ANC will simply not be able to stay the majority party unless they can convince those 2.6 million voters to turn up and vote for them again.
The DA has a slightly different problem. Although there was also a decrease in voter turnout, we know that it was significantly less of an issue. In their case, voters mostly turned to other parties, like ActionSA or the FF+. They will have to convince these voters to come back to them, which could very well be more difficult than the ANC’s challenge.
Both parties will also have to keep an eye on the EFF. If Malema and company finally succeed in getting the younger voters registered and turning up on election day, this could mean a major change in the political outcome. Although it is unlikely that the EFF will become the majority party for many decades, they could become the official opposition and the kingmaker if the ANC falls below 50% nationally.