Five things I will keep an eye on in the municipal elections
A ballot excerpt from South Africa’s first national election in 1994
On Monday we will be heading to the polls for the twelfth time since 1994.
Undoubtedly it will be a very noisy week, but these are some of the things I will be keeping an eye on:
1) Turn-out:
Who will forget those almost endless lines during the 1994 elections? Unfortunately, that kind of election enthusiasm is something of the past. Although our election turnout has remained far higher than America or many European countries, the decline in voter turnout is a worrying trend. For the first time, during the 2019 election, less people voted than those who did not. (Either they did not register or were registered and did not turn up on the day.)
Registration numbers are often an indication of turnout at the polls. According to the IEC, only 67% of eligible voters registered to vote in this election. That means that 13 million eligible voters did not register. This is the lowest since the dawn of democracy.
A survey by Afrobarometer earlier this year found that 16% of respondents said that they would not vote. Compare this to a similar survey prior to the 2019 election where only 1% said that they were definitely not going to vote.
Why is this important? Firstly, because there is a point where one has to question to what extent the election reflects the view of the majority. There is no legal threshold, yet if less and less people vote then it becomes problematic in terms of the democratic expression of people’s views.
Secondly, it is a clear indication of the extent to which the electorate is starting to disengage with the political process. The Afrobarometer survey also found that 64% of those questioned did not feel close to a political party. This is almost 11% higher than during the previous election. This apathy could lead to voters finding alternative ways of expressing frustrations such as riots, thus destabilizing the country.
Thirdly, turnout has an impact on the outcome of the elections. As Dawie Scholtz points out, lower turnout generally benefits the DA and FF+ and negatively impacts on the ANC and EFF. This is due to the fact that suburban areas have historically continued to vote in high numbers whereas the opposite has applied to the townships.
2) Gauteng and the new-comer on the block:
We have very little indication of how well ActionSA is going to do. Limited opinion polling seems to suggest that they could cause a major upset, particularly in the City of Johannesburg. They will definitely draw significant amounts of DA voters in the townships and possibly even in some of the more well-off suburban areas. The question remains to what extent they will also capture some of the traditional ANC and EFF vote, thus securing a king-maker position in the hung council.
3) eThekwini and the rise of the EFF:
With 126 (out of 219) seats, the ANC has dominated the eThekwini Metro Council. However, during the 2019 elections, the EFF’s support doubled in KZN – albeit from a very low base. Some polling data suggests that the recent riots and unhappiness with the whole Zuma – ANC saga might result in further significant growth in EFF support. Former ANC MP Makhosi Khoza might also attract some votes for ActionSA, which might result in a further decline in the ANC majority.
4) ANC performance nationally:
There is no question that this election has been a nightmare for the ANC. Not only were they caught on the backfoot with the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the election date, but organizational and financial challenges have resulted in a very lackluster campaign. The question remains whether the voters will buy their “turning a new leaf” strategy or punish them for the lack of service delivery and large-scale corruption over the previous decade.
The ANC saw a massive decline in support (from 62% to 53,91%) during the previous local government elections in 2016. They improved slightly during the 2019 national election (57,5%). However, if the ANC support drops below 53% it could potentially result in a renewed attack on President Ramaphosa from the RET forces and a possible challenge to his position.
5) Will the Western Cape stay blue?
There is little doubt that the DA will stay the biggest party in the Western Cape - the only question remains with what majority they will rule. In 2016 the DA achieved over two-thirds of the Metro seats. However, their support declined sharply in 2019 when they could get only 56% of the vote in the Western Cape.
Both the Good Party, led by their arch-nemesis Patricia de Lille, and the now multi-racial FF+ is hoping to grab some of the DA’s disillusioned voters. For John Steenhuizen and Helen Zille, this election (and in particular in the Western Cape) is a major test in terms of their leadership of the party.
6) Can the One SA model work?
Mmusi Maimane’s One SA has been supporting over 250 independent candidates both financially and logistically in 12 municipalities across the country. Although they will not make a major impact on the overall outcome of the elections, it is an interesting test for this model in anticipation of independent candidates contesting the next national election.
By end of next week, we will know if this was another - very expensive - exercise in keeping things the same, or whether there will be some interesting developments.
Although I share a general sense of disillusionment with politicians, it is important for us to still make our voices heard and make our mark. Otherwise, we have no right to complain when things stay the same or become even worse.