Ramaphosa victory: Why did so many doubt it?

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as African Union Chairperson, chairing a virtual meeting of the African Union (AU) Bureau of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government and Chairpersons of AU Regional Economic Communities (RECs)

Photo Credit: Flickr/ Government ZA [Photo: GCIS]

I never doubted for a second that President Ramaphosa was going to claim victory at the ANC’s Elective conference. (Ask my clients if you don’t believe me.)

Yet, by Saturday evening, I was starting to wonder if I was losing the plot…

Text messages were flooding into my phone from investors here and abroad convinced that Zweli Mkhize was going to win. They based it on stories in the press and research notes from some brokerage and investment houses.  The Rand started to weaken and bond markets were wobbling.

I phoned various of my deep contacts in the ANC. They all insisted: “No, comrade buffalo will win”. 

 I also kept on doing the sums: Even in the unlikely, worst-case scenario for Ramaphosa, where North West and KZN supported Zweli Mkhize on block, together with 50% of Gauteng, Limpopo, the NEC, PECs and Leagues I calculated that Ramaphosa would still win – albeit, it a close shave.

As we all know by now the Buffalo, or Ankole, as Malema calls him (after his special cattle) won.

So, what happened? Why did so many get it wrong?

A lot had to do with the Zweli Mkhize communications onslaught. From Friday, people in his camp unleashed a tidal wave of social media postings. They also sent numerous people to “tip-off” journalists that Gauteng, Limpopo and North-West delegates had swung over to Mkhize. They were strategic and it worked. A narrative was created.

Even after the Limpopo Provincial Executive formally issued a press statement to dispute the rumours, one media house kept insisting 24 hours later that Ramaphosa was “dumped” by, amongst others, Limpopo. 

Part of the reason why many in the media ran with the story was the lack of other news. The conference was running late, very late - even for the ANC - and there was very little else to report on. After all, how many times could anyone report that there was no loadshedding at the conference, or that Zuma had launched some bogus court action against Ramaphosa?

The ANC did not help either. Unlike previous conferences, there were very few formal media briefings. I’m not sure whether this was inefficiency or unpreparedness by the media office, or part of a political agenda playing out. Whatever the reason, it provided the media with very little news to report on or opportunities to ask questions. 

All major news outlets had incurred huge costs to have a presence at the conference. They also would have pulled journalists away from other stories. Which meant a certain amount of column inches and airtime had to be filled from Nasrec.

To make matters worse, Ramaphosa’s camp was very inefficient and seemingly unprepared to counter the stories from Mkhize’s camp. Perhaps they were also starting to panic? So, stories from their side were few and far apart.

Thankfully for them (and I would suggest the country), the whole Zweli Mkhize-will-win narrative turned out to be false.

Not only did Ramaphosa win, but with two exceptions his preferred candidates for the rest of the top 7 won too. This should allow him to feel more secure in his position - and emboldened to take more definitive actions. Let’s hope this is also the end of any resignation thoughts.  

As a country, we can breathe a little bit easier. 

The ANC conference is done for the next 5 years. Yes, it didn’t do much to counter the perceptions of disarray and divisions in the governing party. Yet, as far as ANC conferences are concerned, the electoral outcome is probably the best it could have been.

Hopefully all the politicians and especially the President will now take a break and come back rested next year. The country is in desperate need for more energy (Eskom and otherwise), as well as fresh faces in cabinet.

Since it is a few days before Christmas, let me try and create some political cheer and say: Let’s hope that this conference will be the beginning of a definitive turn around on service delivery, economic growth and the fight against corruption…

Ok, stop laughing, I am trying hard here!

Happy Festive season to you all!