Is there hope after Cope? What its demise means for other small parties

Last week the national spokesperson of the Congress of the People (COPE), the well-loved and energetic Dennis Bloem, resigned from the party. This was without doubt the final nail in the coffin of COPE. 

Unhappy with the election of Jacob Zuma as president of the ANC, prominent former ANC members launched the party with much funfair in 2018. At the time, COPE was seen as a fresh and strong alternative to the ANC and in the 2019 elections, more than 1.3 million votes secured them 30 seats in the National Assembly. As a comparison, in their first election with much more lead-up time, the EFF were only able to secure 25 seats.

At their height, 286 local councilors represented COPE and they played a major role in a number of provincial legislatures. 

Sadly - as is often the case in politics - leadership battles developed within a year after their launch and continued throughout COPE’s existence. There were problems between the party leader, Mosiuoa “Terror”  Lekota and Sam Shilowa, followed by more battles with Smuts Ngonyama, George Mluleki and more lately Willie Madisa. 

Unimpressed, voters responded negatively to this and at the 2014 election, the party could only retain three seats in parliament as their support dropped to 123 235 votes. They seemed unable to turn the ship around over the next decade and currently has only two seats from 47 461 votes. (At the local level they have 15 seats and no representation in any of the Provincial legislatures.)

With the resignation of Dennis Bloem, the suspension of the deputy president Willie Madisha and election coordinator Mzwandile Hleko, it is almost a given that the party will have even less – I predict zero - representation after next year’s election. 

Bloem, who has been one of the key building blocks of the party, blames it on leadership problems.  Last year, Madisa announced that Lekota’s membership was suspended. Lekota immediately called a press conference, which ended in an on-camera fist fight. He then announced the suspension Madisha, Bloem, and Hleko. 

I’m sure there are many angles to this story, but as someone commented after Bloem’s recent press conference: “very few people care anymore”.

However, even though COPE is no longer of much – if any - relevance in the South African political domain,  there are perhaps a few lessons to be learnt from their demise. 

Firstly, it illustrates the challenges new and smaller parties have to overcome to succeed in our political environment. Even though our electoral system was designed to allow for minority voices (and smaller parties) to be represented, it remains almost impossible for small parties to make an impact - something independent candidates will also experience should they make it into the National Assembly next year. 

Even if they do win a few seats, the biggest challenge remains to be re-elected. With speaking and question time allocated strictly on a proportional basis based on the number of seats, it is extremely difficult for a small party to get exposure in parliament. Financially they will also get far less money from the various sources of party political funding, thus restricting the number of support and constituency staff they can employ, which always makes re-election difficult. 

This will definitely be one of the reasons why parties like Agang, the PAC, ATM and even GOOD and Al-Jama-ah will struggle to hold onto their seats in the 2024 election.

More recently the DA and ANC proposed a minimum threshold to be able to get seats in parliament. Of course, there is currently an IEC determined threshold (based on a mathematical formula), but what the DA and ANC is supporting would result in no representation for smaller parties as we know them today.

Some would argue that this is a good thing since support for these small parties are really a waste of votes and can also lead to instability in a possible minority coalition in the future.  This might be true, but I like the diversity of voices in our parliament – even if some voices are only heard every now and then. Frankly, our parliament is boring enough without going more Westminister-like. 

Having said that, COPE’s decline has been very much of their own making. If they could have solved their leadership battles and infighting, there is no doubt that they could have matured into a serious threat to the ANC by now. 

A few years ago, I ran into Lekota at the OR Tambo Gautrain station. We had a lovely chat and at some stage he pulled out a membership book. “We are on a major membership drive,” he said.  “Can I sign you up?” It was clear from the membership book that not a single form had been filled in. I politely declined and we continued our conversation on the train - except we kept on being interrupted. People of all races came up to greet the very popular Lekota. Many spoke to him in Afrikaans and invited them to their farms.

So, it is truly a pity that we have now seen the (almost) end of COPE. There was so much potential, so much hope.

If only the politicians could have made it work.