Why the ANC’s missing lists threaten Ramaphosa (and the country)
Opinion polls from the 2020 election. Source: Orkin (2020), “Everybody loves a winner: A field experiment providing information on polls in South Africa.”
Firstly, thank you to everyone for the good wishes following my operation eight weeks ago. I’m thankfully getting back to good health.
That is more than one can say of the ANC at the moment…
The gradual disintegration of Luthuli House that many of us have been aware of for months has suddenly became apparent for all to see.
Money is clearly a big issue. Since the passing of the new Political Party Funding law which requires political parties to disclose their donors, rich benefactors were no longer keen to prop up the ANC financially.
Rumours were flying that Cyril Ramaphosa had bailed out the party on more than one occasion, but that was clearly not a sustainable or long-term solution.
This led to the staff being paid late or not at all, and that in turn resulted in them going first on a go-slow and then an all-out strike.
Naturally if the national office wasn’t doing well, neither were the provincial and regional structures – not to talk about the branches.
So, I guess in retrospect it should have come as no surprise that the ANC was not able to submit all their candidate lists to the IEC in time.
The DA, whose opinion polls have been dire over the last few months, practically threw a party. Spokespeople could not contain their joy as they smugly commented on the disarray within the ANC.
They are right, of course. It was a mess, a big one at that for the ANC. Not only would it weaken the party, but it would also deny millions of their voters the opportunity to vote for their candidate and party of choice.
So commissars in Luthuli House must have sighed a big sigh of relief when, following the Constitutional Court judgement, the IEC announced the reopening of not only the voters’ roll, but also of candidates’ lists.
Seeing their undeserved advantage disappearing fast, the DA objected loudly and announced their intention to take the matter to court.
They might be right and, from what legal experts tell me, have a good case.
However, if the ANC is not able to compete in the 93 municipalities they failed to register candidates (of which at least 35 would then change political power), it would cause much bigger problems for the country at large.
It is no secret that Cyril Ramaphosa has faced constant challenges from inside his party to his leadership. Green and gold vultures have been circling since his election at the ANC’s Nasrec Conference in 2017.
In typical Ramaphosa style, he has been able to skilfully negotiate the challenges. However, one of the main reasons that he remained safe has been due to his election pull. Post Zuma, the National Executive Committee (NEC) has always known that they need Ramaphosa to win elections.
“If the ANC’s support drops dramatically in the polls and to the extent that the MPs and leadership start to get nervous about their own positions, the vultures will be joined by other predators and they will move in for the kill. ”
For purely selfish reasons, those who opposed and disliked Ramaphosa would not make moves against him. They want to stay in positions of power and influence and for that they need Ramaphosa.
However, if that proves to no longer be true, things could change fast- as Jacob Zuma found out in August 2016. Up to that point there was little or no threat to him in the ANC. However, that changed after the Local Government elections of that year.
For the first time, ANC support fell below 60% to 53.9%. Fearing that the trend would continue during the national elections, the NEC had had enough.
It was (thankfully) the beginning of the end of the Zuma era.
The problem is that the same thing could easily happen to Ramaphosa. If the ANC’s support drops dramatically in the polls and to the extent that the MPs and leadership start to get nervous about their own positions, the vultures will be joined by other predators and they will move in for the kill.
There can be no question that Ramaphosa is not only the best, but also the only person that can lead the country at the moment.
As much as the DA and their supporters are celebrating the ANC’s mess, they are also living in cloud cuckoo-land if they think the recent events mean they will “take over”. Black voters (as much as Afrikaans voters) have turned their back on the Zille-Steenhuizen led DA. In the absence of the ANC they will most likely cast their ballot in support of the EFF.
There is no doubt that service provision in many municipal councils has suffered greatly under ANC control. However, history has taught us that EFF control won’t improve matters.
A combination of many municipalities turning red and the ANC controlled by the Ace faction is not something to look forward to.
So, as much as there can be no question that only the ANC can be blamed for their current woes, let’s hope that for the sake of the country it can still be fixed.