Enough with the bluster, form the municipalities already!

Nelson Mandela Bay, a location which Melanie Verwoerd describes as being in almost perpetual chaos over the last five years due to unsuccessful coalitions.

Photo credit: Ngrund via Wikimedia Commons

As with Apartheid, it is difficult to find anyone these days who would admit that they were happy when Jacob Zuma became president. Yet, when Thabo Mbeki was “recalled” by the ANC, there was large scale applause. 

“Be careful what you wish for,” I warned at the time.

It turned out to have been a prudent warning...

I have also for years been warning against coalitions in South Africa. In theory, they make sense. They do away with the dominance of one party and in so doing enforce more cooperation - which should result in better service to the citizenry.

In practice, it is not so easy – especially in our beloved Mzanzi.

Coalitions require strong democratic traditions and practices. They also require mature politicians. Even in countries with centuries of democracy and far less divisive political playing fields, they often break down.  Our democracy remains fragile and we certainly don’t have many mature politicians – especially not at the local level where personal differences often play a much bigger role. It is therefore not surprising that as of yet we have no instance of a successful coalition – in fact, the opposite is true. Nelson Mandela Bay, for example, was in almost perpetual chaos over the last five years.  

Our political space is just too divisive and ego-driven for coalitions.

Yet, we now have 66 hung councils requiring some form of coalition government. Five of these councils are metros accounting for almost half of South Africa’s economic output. To put it bluntly, if these metros don’t function, the country can’t function.

Successful coalitions usually have the following characteristics: Firstly, they are between two or three parties. Anything more becomes very unstable and unworkable. Secondly, they are usually between partners who are not too far removed ideologically.  

Many party leaders were very quick (possibly before they looked at the actual seat allocations) to dismiss coalition agreements with other parties. The FF+ and ActionSA said that they would never work with the ANC.  The DA insisted that they wouldn’t work with the EFF and then (possibly in the heat of the moment) John Steenhuizen also declared that he would not form coalitions with the ANC.

The question is then with whom? 

The Constitution requires a 50% majority of the total number of councilors to pass the budgets, by-laws, impose levies or taxes and raise loans. This means that in order for a local authority to be able to function you need some form of agreement between at least 50% of the councilors.

In Tshwane that requires 108 (out of 214) seats. An ANC-EFF-PAC coalition only gets to 99 seats.  An ANC-DA coalition would comfortably reach the target with 144 seats.

However, if the DA insists on not going into a coalition with the ANC, they would require an agreement with ActionSA, FF+, ACDP and Patriotic Alliance - a five-party coalition, which would give them the required 108 votes.  That is too close for comfort, so they might want to involve COPE as well which gives them one seat to spare – in case someone isn’t there on a voting day.

Johannesburg is even worse. There, 136 seats are required for a majority. An ANC, EFF, IFP and PAC coalition still falls short with 7 seats. A DA-ANC coalition is comfortable with 162 seats.

Without the ANC, the DA will require the support of ActionSA, Patriotic Alliance FF+, ACDP, Aljamal and…wait for it… at least six other parties with one seat each. A 12-party coalition, which again will only bring them to the exact number of 136. So, if anyone gets out on the wrong side of the bed (and trust me that happens a lot at the local government level) the coalition will fall apart.

The sums in Nelson Mandela Bay are similar with 11 parties required if the DA won’t work with the ANC.

Only in Ekhuruleni and eThekwini can the ANC work either with the IFP or EFF to secure a majority.

The DA are in an extremely strong position. They could get major concessions from the ANC not only at local level but possible even nationally. That, however, requires maturity and as stated above that is not something our politicians are known for.

Of course, if the parties are unable to reach some form of workable agreement, they would ultimately have to go back to the polls. It is not a simple process and would take months. Yet, this might suit the ANC. As I wrote last week, if they are able to mobilise their voters to turn up to vote, things could change dramatically in their favour. With voting data available, they would only have to make sure to increase the turnout in the areas that failed them last time and that could potentially see them getting the majority again.

Having already had a relatively high turnout of their voters, the DA would almost certainly lose out.

As things stand, it is difficult to see how workable coalitions will be possible in especially Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay and Johannesburg.

Having said that, I learned a long time ago that when it comes to political power games, what was once totally impossible can quickly become a necessity. So, I won’t be surprised if, despite all the bluster around principles, agreements would be reached – leaving it over to the spin doctors to explain.