Metro coalitions: Gird yourself, we are in for an even rougher ride than before
Man, politics is a dirty business!
Last week I suggested that I wouldn’t be surprised if all the “principles” of the politicians flew out the door and that, despite all the bluster, they would reach agreements.
Less than a week later we are there.
The result? A massive change in the mayoral candidates and speakers across many of the big metros.
What happened on the day is not that difficult to work out. The DA got a number of mayoral candidates after the EFF, ActionSA, and a number of smaller parties voted for them.
What went on behind the scenes is far more interesting and intriguing.
The narrative that is being spun by the DA (I warned that the spin doctors would work overtime), is that it was a big surprise to them and that they are totally puzzled as to how this happened.
I don’t believe it for a second.
In an interview with SABC around lunchtime on Monday (before any of the big “surprises” had happened), Helen Zille looked extremely smug – even for Helen. At some point- after patronizing the interviewer repeatedly- she said in reference to the DA’s electoral performance: “We have consolidated nicely”. Then came what sounded like a throw-away comment, but had me sit up: “…and we might be in for quite a number of surprises today”.
At the risk of also sounding patronizing, the thing about a surprise is that you don’t know hours ahead that you are about to be surprised.
So what was going on here?
Of course, John-I-will-never-work-with-the-EFF-Steenhuizen and his friends in the DA are desperate to convince us that there was no deal with the EFF.
Yet, I find it extremely hard to believe that the EFF would just “give” the DA a number of mayors and speakers without demanding – and getting – something in return. Even for flip-flopping Malema, that seems just too much out of character.
If the EFF did indeed decide to hand over all this power to the DA without getting anything in return, they would have a lot of explaining to do to their voters.
If there was a deal or even an informal arrangement, they should tell us what it was. Which one of their demands around land, the reserve bank, the removal of the Stem, etc. did the DA bow to?
If none of these, then what?
Of course, both parties will play word games by telling us there was no formal agreement, but that does not mean there wasn’t some nod-wink agreement.
Then, there was Herman Mashaba. After releasing a scathing press statement about the DA just two days earlier and being rejected by the DA as a mayoral candidate, his party also supported the DA’s candidates. A day after the elections, Herman Mashaba said: “Make no mistake, the DA has not been gifted anything”. Interesting words for a successful businessman. If they weren’t gifted the mayoral and speaker positions, what was the payment?
Tell us, Mr. Mashaba.
Of course, the opposition parties will argue that it was all in service of the “greater good”, i.e. to keep the ANC out of power. Over the last few weeks Malema, Steenhuizen, and Mashaba have sounded more and more like Republican Senator Mitch McConnell when he said in 2011 that the Republican party’s energy would be totally focused on one thing: preventing Obama from getting a second term.
Undoubtedly, the ANC has messed up the running of just about every council under its control in the past. However, if the opposition parties are claiming to be better and planning to do better, surely they should focus on getting the voters the most stable and secure local authorities so services can improve.
The problem remains that the chance of these very unstable councils - made up of unlikely bed fellows – working and being able to bring about change, is virtually zero.
It is important to remember that without formal coalition agreements, no party or formal coalition has over 50% of the votes in these councils. This means that every time there is a budget or council by-law to be passed, the dramas of the last two weeks will be repeated.
As one commentator to a News24 article shrewdly observed: “Wait for the first vote of no confidence…and then another and then another… to paralyse the council”.
Which reminded me of the time in 2018 when Malema told the DA to go to hell before the EFF voted for the removal of Athol Trollip in Nelson Mandela Bay. The reason was that the DA had voted against the expropriation of land without compensation. Does anyone want to take a bet on how long it will take before this becomes an issue again in any (or all) of these councils?
The elections of mayors and speakers are important and yes, we have entered a new era in South African politics, but this is only the beginning. Now, the real games of governing have to begin.
The question is will it be any better?
The last two weeks have shown that the personal battles, power games, the laying down of principles and the making of false promises to voters have not stopped, they have only changed T-shirts.
I fear that we might possibly be in an even worse space than before, since now it is no longer only the ANC, but also the opposition parties that are part of the egotistical power games which would mean that they will quickly forget the people who they are meant to serve.